Breaking: White House says GSEs will buy $200B of MBS — what that could do to rates (and your deals)

President Trump says he’s directing the housing agencies to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to pull mortgage rates lower. Early coverage from Reuters, the Financial Times, AP, and trade press confirms the headline and timing, with FHFA leadership signaling intent (details TBD).

Quick context

  • Who’s buying? Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (the “GSEs”), which remain under government control and already play a giant role in housing finance.

  • How would it work? By purchasing mortgage bonds, the GSEs add demand to the agency MBS market. More demand → higher bond prices → lower yields → lower primary mortgage rates (in theory). Size matters: the MBS market is ~$11T, so $200B is sizable but not game-changing.

  • How big an impact? Early estimates range from ~0.10–0.15% (10–15 bps) to maybe ~0.25–0.50% in a best case, with several economists skeptical it will “fix” affordability by itself.

What it means for investors

  • Agency/conforming borrowers could see some improvement if the program is executed quickly and sustained. The magnitude depends on execution details, duration, and market spreads.

  • DSCR / non-QM: spillover is indirect. DSCR pricing tracks the 10-year Treasury / swaps plus non-QM credit spreads. If agency MBS tighten and risk appetite improves, non-QM spreads can drift lower, but don’t expect a 1:1 move. (Some coverage notes GSE portfolios are near regulatory limits—another reason not to bank on a giant, immediate drop.)

  • Project/bridge/GUC: funding costs are more tied to credit spreads and execution risk than to agency MBS. Any benefit would be second-order.

What to do now

  1. Price your live deal today and run a + / – 25 bps sensitivity so you’re ready either way.

  2. Lock with a plan (float-down if available) rather than gambling on headline-driven dips.

  3. For DSCR holds, ask for 30-yr vs. 40-yr (IO) side-by-sides; lower payment structures can boost DSCR even if headline rates only nudge down.

  4. Keep eyes on the 10-year & spreads—they’ll tell you more than the press conference.

Key risks to watch

  • Program details & pace: size, timeline, and whether purchases are one-off or recurring.

  • Market size reality: $200B helps, but it’s a small slice of an $11T market. Expect modest moves, not a reset.

  • Policy noise: headlines can move stocks; rates follow bonds and spreads. Don’t confuse the two.

Want a same-day scenario at today’s sheets (with a 25 bps “what-if”)?

Reply with some details on your project. I, George, will personally get back to you with our best rate possible.

Business-purpose loans only. Not a commitment to lend. Terms, rates, and guidelines subject to change and approval.